Brexit
Did you see? British Pound is finally up against euro and US dollar after supreme court rules govt. unlawfully shut down parliament! I am still holding bunch of pounds and waiting for bounce back. Brexit negotiations will decide where we will go with usd/gbp.
Don't expect too much until it is not clear about Brexit, but pound will bounce back for sure. I think pound was undervalued too much.
Hello. The latest pound and euro exchange rate is giving me a headache. After Britain has left the EU, the pound, as you know, experienced a major fall. What about the economic forecast for the pound: can it expect a rise or is it going to fall even more after Britain leaves EU for good? Is it worth exchanging pounds to euros now because of this frightening situation, or should I wait til the situation becomes more stable and hope for the best? Thank you in advance.
Lenda, thank you for the question. It’s true, everyone is nervously asking the same question. And we have a very specific answer: no one can predict what’s going to happen in the future, we can only speculate. All we can do is observe what is happening with markets, since currency/financial markets deals with new and unpredictable scandals all the time, which means that everything could change dramatically any minute. Let’s remember the public reaction to Greece situation – euro was falling, but it managed to recover, which was influenced by a number of different news. It’s the same with Great Britain - lots of things are unfolding and there is no way to know what’s about to happen. Besides, Britain only voted to leave, but hasn’t done it yet.
I would suggest analysing pound exchange rates throughout this whole period, then you’ll notice that it keeps on falling and rising, and there is nothing unusual about this activity. Nobody can tell you what awaits in the future, that’s why you should trust yourself and make these decisions on your own: some people will make worse choices, while the others will be more fortunate.
I’ll be needing to exchange a large amount of euros to pounds (>50 thousand £). I’m simply asking for the advice, I’m not going to blame you for anything. But should I exchange it now or should I wait until there are some news about Brexit? Or until it actually happens? Thanks!
Hari, thank you for the question. I am not really sure if it’s more beneficial to exchange it now or not. It will take a lot of time for Brexit to happen, more details are going to be announced in March, 2017, but everything should start moving only in 2019.
Based purely on my opinion, pound should recover and grow stronger in a long run (in 1,5-2 years), because of all of the challenges that European Union is going to face. When it comes to a shorter period of time (3-9 months), I believe there are going to be lots of speculations and emotions, but pound should not fall even more than it did in October. I imagine pound getting stronger, yet there might be some changes in March, perhaps pound exchange rate will fall a bit. One way or another, I think that the more Great Britain isolates itself, the stronger its currency will be.
This piece of advice is just a personal opinion and one should not depend on it when making any sort of decisions. Financial world is a very complex and constantly changing matter, which is influenced by a number of factors. So it’s impossible to predict what’s going to happen exactly. Good luck!
